Peak oil e le infrastrutture marce

Un articolo che si distingue (come tutti di quel blog) dal rumore quotidiano di sottofondo di CO2, riscaldamento globale e peak oil:

If peak oil results in the economic failure that most analysts expect and if it occurs within the next ten to fifteen years, which is almost guaranteed, it could not come at a worse time when looking at the aging infrastructure around us. Over 80% of our current, major, functioning infrastructure was built in the quarter century beginning in 1950 or earlier. Over 50% of that infrastructure will have exceeded its designed service life by 2025. By the middle of this century almost all of that infrastructure currently in service will have reached or exceeded its designed lifespan. In this same timeframe, unfortunately, the national and global economy will probably be in a period of severe contraction due to the impact of global peak oil. It is unlikely in a contracting economy that infrastructure, regardless of it’s age, will be replaced or, perhaps, even properly decommissioned. Efforts will be made to keep that infrastructure in service as long as possible, or longer. But peak oil will hit, the global economy will go into terminal decline at the very time when most of our infrastructure seriously needs replacement or decommissioning.

In breve dice che la nostra società tende di sottovalutare le infrastrutture. Ci rendiamo conto solo quando salta la corrente o precipita un ponte. Le opere sono progettati per una durata media di 50 anni e i costi maggiori per la manutenzione cadono nella seconda metà. E ci troveremo con quasi tutta l’infrastruttura da rinnovare giusto nel momento quando comincia di scarseggiare davvero il petrolio, tra 10 -15 anni, senza i mezzi necessari.

E l’autore non è ottimista: non ce la faremo di agire come sarebbe necessario, e avrà anche ragione purtroppo.